Honestly, one hasn't been able to spend the time following the elections at a closer level. But then, from what it looks like, one might also not have to wait for five years for the next general elections. God(and voters) forbid, hope that doesn't happen and we get a clear mandate for a government to rule us for the next five years. That's probably asking for too much.
Constituencies in Bangalore go the polls tomorrow and one is (terribly) excited to vote for the first time. One's name is included in the voters list and one sees no reason why he should not vote. One hopes that it is worth all the effort that one had to do to get the voter ID issued.
As much as one would loved to come up with an analysis and my prediction for these polls, like
this excellent one by
Our Psephologist In The Making (Seth, we'll make you one even if you don't want to be. Heck, you are already one), I'd like to share my
sense of what is a
more probable outcome at the end of the elections (One is being very careful in choosing the words).
As
Dolby mentions in his
comment to Seth's
considered opinion, NDA will probably be able to cobble together a majority if it is able to put together the NDA that it was during
Atal Behari Vajpayee's Pramod Mahajan's time. Whatever the current posturing of parties like BJD, TDP, AIADMK, BSP, even JD(S) may be, they would not, in my opinion, hestitate to be a part of a BJP-led government if they are able to enjoy power. Also, it is Advani's last shot at glory and one gets the sense that the entire party is clearly rallying around him to ensuring the PM's post for him by hook or by crook (necessary to mention this?). So there you go, one's
feeling is that, *eventually*, the NDA will come to power with a thin majority.
As for the two great politicians mentioned in the above paragraphs, BJP knows how much they are missing Mr. Mahajan's networking and organization skills and only much much later, when it is too late, will our learned media realise that they have not giving Mr. Vajpayee his due. A post each on M/s Mahajan and Vajapayee and on the lack of proper political history documentation in India due for later.
As far as Karnataka is concerned, one would not be surprised if a few of the Congress bigwigs(don't think any of them wear wigs) from among M/s Dharam Singh, Mallikarjun Kharge, Veerappa Moily, S Bangarappa, Janardhan Poojary and Mrs. Margaret Alva lose in these elections. The BJP could end up winning more seats than what is being projected.
One would also be keenly following the response of the urban, educated voters who are supposedly more aware of the issues and now have been woken by
these guys, drinking
their tea and with our poster and reel boys and girls doing their
bit of preaching. One would love to be proved wrong on this one, but one doesn't think the apathy of the urban voters towards particpation in our democratic process and public institution has gone away and it will still be rural, poor voters who will come out in large numbers and vote. One is glad that it is that way, at least those people come out and vote for some reason they believe will be to their benefit. One's worst fear is voting being turned into a
cool, fashionable thing to do for our young, upwardly mobile crowd. We'll know tomorrow.
PS. One's constituency, Bangalore Central is
apparently the most urban of the constituencies in Bangalore. Here's a glimpse of the BJP's campaign. No signs of other parties campaigning, at least close to where one lives and works. Urban, did someone say?
Call me racist, but this is proof that China has the highest population in the world. They don't get to vote in China the way we get to in India, do they?
