Predictions Galore

These are some numbers the media has been predicting. Surprisingly the numbers are more or less similar to each other giving UPA a miniscule lead over BJP. History is all set to repeat itself as we see another coalition government in the making:-

• BJP internal poll: NDA 217
• Congress internal poll: Congress 160
• Headlines Today: UPA 191, NDA 180
• Star-AC Neilsen: UPA 199, NDA 196
• India TV-C Voter: UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195
• CNN-IBN-CSDS: UPA 185-205, NDA 145-160
• The Times of India: UPA 198, NDA 183

This was Hitesh's prediction of the number game earlier on this blog. 

INC's many possible PMs

Considering the likely scenario where the Congress is forced to seek the support of the Left in addition to its allies in the UPA/fourth front, it is possible that the Congress has to come up with a candidate other than Dr. Singh. Reasons:

1. The Left, especially Karat, believe that the divorce over the nuclear deal was something precipitated by Dr. Singh personally, that it was Dr. Singh's single minded obsession over sealing the deal that forced the hand of Sonia Gandhi.

2. Also, one would notice a curious trend in the Congress's behaviour towards allies. While it has refused to go ahead with 'humiliating' seat sharing arrangements in UP & Bihar with allies that have been loyal (RJD & LJP) or allies they should be indebted to (SP), they have accepted such a humiliating deal with a serially-disloyal ally (TC) in West Bengal (despite holding 6 seats from the state in the outgoing Lok Sabha, the Congress has given nearly 2/3rd the seats to TC which had just one MP). This would indicate that defeating the Left seems to be even more important that defeating BSP/BJP in Congress's scheme of things. That Sonia cleared the alliance with TC despite Pranabda's objections has been taken to mean Dr. Singh pressurizing her.

In this light, the Left may insist on a different PM if they do extend support to the UPA - something not lost on other constituents of the UPA if recent statements of Pawar, Lalu and Paswan are anything to go by.

Some idle speculation on who could be the Congress's choice if its hands are forced (and what stands for and against them):

1. Manmohan Singh: The incumbent and INC's PM candidate, Manmohan is the front-runner for the PM's post in a INC-led dispensation. His squeaky clean image and central role in the ushering in of economic reforms in 1991 means that he is held in high regards by the Indian middle class. Five years in office have taken off some sheen though - while the media may have
discovered the agressive new Manmohan Singh only recently (much to their delight) the Left saw the same last year (much to their consternation).

While the First Family's public endorsement is his trump card, extremely poor relations with the Left may upset his plans of becoming PM. His ill health is another concern for some - and may become the excuse if he needs to be eased out in someone else's favour.

2. Pranab Mukherjee: Abhishek Manu Sighvi often remarks that LK Advani is the BJP's perpetual PM-in-waiting. Well Pranabda would be the INC's answer to Advani then! He voiced his hope of becoming PM in 1984 (after Indira Gandhi's assasination). Rajiv never forgave him for that, and the way Sonia chose not to have an acting PM when Manmohan was recuperating from cardiac surgery, Sonia hasn't forgiven him either. But this head-of-more-Group-of-Ministers-than-anyone-cares-to-remember has one big trump card - acceptability to the Left. His lukewarm response to the Mahajot in WB only further endears him to the Marxists. If Marxists refuse to let Dr. Singh be PM, Sonia may finally reward him for his years of yoeman
service to the party and the country.

3. AK Anthony: Now that Shivraj Patil is out of favour and disgraced, AK Anthony is second in Sonia's list of sychophants with a Mr. Clean image. However, he is no Manmohan Singh and has few achievements (save his 'clean' image) to list in his career. Besides, he has a pre-ponderance towards resigning on the flimsiest of moral grounds - something that does not gel with INC's constant refrain of stability.

4. P Chidambaram: While a Sonia supplicant, intelligent, suave and 'Mr. Clean', his young age goes against him. Sonia would rather prefer an aging politician who would simply retire from politics when her decides to take up the mantle of PMship.

5. Sheila Dikshit: Much has been made about her bucking anti-incumbency to return to power in Delhi for a thrid consecutive time. However most of those who exult over her victory probably forget that when she had returned to power last time, Sonia Gandhi had made her run around for over a week before confirming her as the next CM - just to put her in place. There is little
evidence that Sonia trusts her more. And Sheila Dikshit as PM would be a veritable challenge to Sonia Gandhi's popularity - widowed mothers from political families that they both are. Sonia may not want to risk this.

6. Sushil Kumar Shinde: The darkhorse who could make it. In addition to being a supplicant of Sonia Gandhi, he has been Chief Minister, Union Minister, Governor and even a candidate for the office of Vice President (he lost to Shekhawat). Just like Pratibha Patil being a woman made Left drop objections to a Congressi President, his Dalit background would do the same (not to mention blunt Maya's campaign for a Dalit PM). Also he is a Maharashtrian - Pawar may have no choice but backing him.

So I think that if it is not Manmohan Singh, it would be a choice between Shinde & Antony. What do u think?

My considered opinion on the possible outcome of the Lok Sabha polls

I know it’s a risky proposition to stick one’s neck out and give numbers to each alliance’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls, but what the heck! Its not like I am looking for a career in psephology anyway! So here goes my ‘prediction’:

Margin of error: +/- 5 seats for the All India total

Yup, the BJP may emerge as the single largest party. But the difference between the Congress & the BJP numbers falls well within what I think is my margin of error. So what I can say for sure is this:

· Cong & BJP will both get between 140 & 150 seats each

· With about 200 seats, the UPA is by far the largest coalition (for the purpose of this analysis UPA includes the SP, RJD, LJP and JMM for they haven’t formally broken

off their ties with the UPA)

· The NDA, about 25 seats lesser than the UPA, is a distant second

· The much vaunted Third Front may just about manage to make the 100 mark. A weak performance from the Left is responsible for the same

· The lower side estimates for Cong and the BJP (i.e. 140) means that both put together would be above the halfway mark. Thus no true non-Cong, non-BJP govt. is

theoretically possible.

· For the UPA to form a govt., the only way would be to get the support of the Left Front, AIADMK+MDMK+PMK, TRS, JD(S), RLD, JD(U), BJD and BSP. In the process it will lose the support of Trinamool, DMK, RLD and SP. This entire process will bring an additional 71 seats to the UPA – just enough to form the government.

o That the JD(U) (whose govt. in Bihar depends on the BJP’s support), BJD (whose principle foe is the Congress) and BSP (who has had one too many run-ins with the Gandhi family) would support the UPA is for from certain

· If instead the Cong agrees to support a Third Front + rest-of-UPA govt. from outside, on may see also see the participation of TDP & AGP – maybe even the Akali Dal. With a buffer of about 20 seats above the halfway mark, such a government would be most likely to win a confidence vote.

o However the belligerence the Cong has shown with SP, RJD & LJP would suggest that the Congress wishes to avoid this possibility. Even if they do support such a government they would have enough of an influence over the govt. to ensure that potential threats like Mayawati are nowhere near PM-ship.

· Even with the support of AIADMK+PMK+MDMK, TDP+TRS and BSP, the NDA would not be able to muster the numbers needed to form a government. Advani may have lost his last chance at the top job.

· However the greatest likelihood is that no government would take shape and we would see another election by the end of this year.

o All this analysis has not factored in the potential for horse-trading. The Congress could, for example, choose to forego the chance of tying up with the BSP in favour of Amar Singh’s considerable political management skills. Upper-caste members of the BSP as well as Congress rebels in the BJP (a considerable number of these are being fielded by the BJP in Karnataka & Gujarat) could be easy targets. The political life of such a govt. is questionable and we may see early elections anyway.

What does the fact that this Lok Sabha is not destined for a full term mean for the big players? If elections are held again before 2010, we may see a postponement of Rahul Gandhi’s ascension to the elections after that. Advani would retire from politics and the powerful performance of the Modi faction in Gujarat, Maharashtra, HP & Karnataka could propel Narendrabhai to the driver’s seat in the BJP. Mayawati may suffer most – while she would remain a big player in any future Lok Sabha, her PM ambitions would be severely dented.

Where I could go wrong:

What to look out for: