Predictions Galore

These are some numbers the media has been predicting. Surprisingly the numbers are more or less similar to each other giving UPA a miniscule lead over BJP. History is all set to repeat itself as we see another coalition government in the making:-

• BJP internal poll: NDA 217
• Congress internal poll: Congress 160
• Headlines Today: UPA 191, NDA 180
• Star-AC Neilsen: UPA 199, NDA 196
• India TV-C Voter: UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195
• CNN-IBN-CSDS: UPA 185-205, NDA 145-160
• The Times of India: UPA 198, NDA 183

This was Hitesh's prediction of the number game earlier on this blog. 

My considered opinion on the possible outcome of the Lok Sabha polls

I know it’s a risky proposition to stick one’s neck out and give numbers to each alliance’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls, but what the heck! Its not like I am looking for a career in psephology anyway! So here goes my ‘prediction’:

Margin of error: +/- 5 seats for the All India total

Yup, the BJP may emerge as the single largest party. But the difference between the Congress & the BJP numbers falls well within what I think is my margin of error. So what I can say for sure is this:

· Cong & BJP will both get between 140 & 150 seats each

· With about 200 seats, the UPA is by far the largest coalition (for the purpose of this analysis UPA includes the SP, RJD, LJP and JMM for they haven’t formally broken

off their ties with the UPA)

· The NDA, about 25 seats lesser than the UPA, is a distant second

· The much vaunted Third Front may just about manage to make the 100 mark. A weak performance from the Left is responsible for the same

· The lower side estimates for Cong and the BJP (i.e. 140) means that both put together would be above the halfway mark. Thus no true non-Cong, non-BJP govt. is

theoretically possible.

· For the UPA to form a govt., the only way would be to get the support of the Left Front, AIADMK+MDMK+PMK, TRS, JD(S), RLD, JD(U), BJD and BSP. In the process it will lose the support of Trinamool, DMK, RLD and SP. This entire process will bring an additional 71 seats to the UPA – just enough to form the government.

o That the JD(U) (whose govt. in Bihar depends on the BJP’s support), BJD (whose principle foe is the Congress) and BSP (who has had one too many run-ins with the Gandhi family) would support the UPA is for from certain

· If instead the Cong agrees to support a Third Front + rest-of-UPA govt. from outside, on may see also see the participation of TDP & AGP – maybe even the Akali Dal. With a buffer of about 20 seats above the halfway mark, such a government would be most likely to win a confidence vote.

o However the belligerence the Cong has shown with SP, RJD & LJP would suggest that the Congress wishes to avoid this possibility. Even if they do support such a government they would have enough of an influence over the govt. to ensure that potential threats like Mayawati are nowhere near PM-ship.

· Even with the support of AIADMK+PMK+MDMK, TDP+TRS and BSP, the NDA would not be able to muster the numbers needed to form a government. Advani may have lost his last chance at the top job.

· However the greatest likelihood is that no government would take shape and we would see another election by the end of this year.

o All this analysis has not factored in the potential for horse-trading. The Congress could, for example, choose to forego the chance of tying up with the BSP in favour of Amar Singh’s considerable political management skills. Upper-caste members of the BSP as well as Congress rebels in the BJP (a considerable number of these are being fielded by the BJP in Karnataka & Gujarat) could be easy targets. The political life of such a govt. is questionable and we may see early elections anyway.

What does the fact that this Lok Sabha is not destined for a full term mean for the big players? If elections are held again before 2010, we may see a postponement of Rahul Gandhi’s ascension to the elections after that. Advani would retire from politics and the powerful performance of the Modi faction in Gujarat, Maharashtra, HP & Karnataka could propel Narendrabhai to the driver’s seat in the BJP. Mayawati may suffer most – while she would remain a big player in any future Lok Sabha, her PM ambitions would be severely dented.

Where I could go wrong:

What to look out for:

Friends of BJP Meet, April 13th, New Delhi

Having missed the last Friends of BJP meet because of prior engagements, I made it a point to attend the meet yesterday at Siri Fort Auditorium. The auditorium was full, although not overflowing like the last such meet in Delhi (probably because yesterday was Baisakhi).

Friends of BJP claims to be a 'subset of the educated civil society that is BJP-leaning, and willing to be vocal about it'. It is not officially a wing/organ of the BJP, neither does it agree with the BJP on all matter. However it is their belief that 'at this point of time the BJP is a better alternative'. The core team consists of middle & upper class professionals - lawyers, bankers, entrepreneurs and even the winner & a finalist of ToI's Lead India thingie! The Friends of BJP seeks to be all weather body which works closely with the BJP during elections as well as otherwise. More about them here.

Among those who spoke were Rajesh Jain (who sold IndiaWorld to Satyam for $115 million in 1999) from the organizers. His speech was centered around not so much the virtues of the BJP as the apathy of what he called 'Middle India' - how they refuse to vote, take little interest in matters of national interest and generally take comfort in the 'kya farak padta hai' and 'sab neta chor hai' philosophies. Consequently his main exhortation was that this class vote - to whichever party, but vote.

Arti Mehra (Mayor of Delhi) and Vijay Goel (ex-Union Minister and BJP's candidate for the New Delhi seat) also spoke. While the latter concentrated of on his work in the then Chandni Chowk constituency, the former stuck to extolling the star speaker of the evening - BJP GenSec Arun Jaitley.

Arun Jaitley's didn't dissapoint. From a tirade against 'Majboor' Dr. Singh to paens to 'Mazboot' Mr. Advani, from lambasting the UPA to dismissing the Third Front, he did it all. However what I found really heart warming was the part of his speech dedicated to us professionals. He referred to BJP's manifesto - which promises raising tax exemption to 3 lacs and reducing interest rates on housing & education loans - and pointed out that other parties haven't even bothered to promise anything concrete and have chosen to 'merely pay lip service to the power of the youth'. Jaitley pointed out, Dr. Singh outrightly dismissed the idea of a low tax, low interest-rate regime as 'wishful thinking'. Excerpts of Jaitley's speech can be found here.

My account here may be tinged by my soft corner for the BJP, but the truth is that the BJP is the only one even trying to directly engage us young professional. While the viability of the Friends of BJP's viral marketing effort (the want the 50k registered members to each talk to 25 others and so on about the need to vote and vote for the BJP) is yet to be determined, the using of new age media to achieve the same is commendable.

A visit to their website maybe interesting, if for nothing else then for their interesting write-ups on 'What you can do this Election', 'Hosting Drawing Room Conversations', 'Conducting Small Meetings', etc.