My considered opinion on the possible outcome of the Lok Sabha polls

I know it’s a risky proposition to stick one’s neck out and give numbers to each alliance’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls, but what the heck! Its not like I am looking for a career in psephology anyway! So here goes my ‘prediction’:

Margin of error: +/- 5 seats for the All India total

Yup, the BJP may emerge as the single largest party. But the difference between the Congress & the BJP numbers falls well within what I think is my margin of error. So what I can say for sure is this:

· Cong & BJP will both get between 140 & 150 seats each

· With about 200 seats, the UPA is by far the largest coalition (for the purpose of this analysis UPA includes the SP, RJD, LJP and JMM for they haven’t formally broken

off their ties with the UPA)

· The NDA, about 25 seats lesser than the UPA, is a distant second

· The much vaunted Third Front may just about manage to make the 100 mark. A weak performance from the Left is responsible for the same

· The lower side estimates for Cong and the BJP (i.e. 140) means that both put together would be above the halfway mark. Thus no true non-Cong, non-BJP govt. is

theoretically possible.

· For the UPA to form a govt., the only way would be to get the support of the Left Front, AIADMK+MDMK+PMK, TRS, JD(S), RLD, JD(U), BJD and BSP. In the process it will lose the support of Trinamool, DMK, RLD and SP. This entire process will bring an additional 71 seats to the UPA – just enough to form the government.

o That the JD(U) (whose govt. in Bihar depends on the BJP’s support), BJD (whose principle foe is the Congress) and BSP (who has had one too many run-ins with the Gandhi family) would support the UPA is for from certain

· If instead the Cong agrees to support a Third Front + rest-of-UPA govt. from outside, on may see also see the participation of TDP & AGP – maybe even the Akali Dal. With a buffer of about 20 seats above the halfway mark, such a government would be most likely to win a confidence vote.

o However the belligerence the Cong has shown with SP, RJD & LJP would suggest that the Congress wishes to avoid this possibility. Even if they do support such a government they would have enough of an influence over the govt. to ensure that potential threats like Mayawati are nowhere near PM-ship.

· Even with the support of AIADMK+PMK+MDMK, TDP+TRS and BSP, the NDA would not be able to muster the numbers needed to form a government. Advani may have lost his last chance at the top job.

· However the greatest likelihood is that no government would take shape and we would see another election by the end of this year.

o All this analysis has not factored in the potential for horse-trading. The Congress could, for example, choose to forego the chance of tying up with the BSP in favour of Amar Singh’s considerable political management skills. Upper-caste members of the BSP as well as Congress rebels in the BJP (a considerable number of these are being fielded by the BJP in Karnataka & Gujarat) could be easy targets. The political life of such a govt. is questionable and we may see early elections anyway.

What does the fact that this Lok Sabha is not destined for a full term mean for the big players? If elections are held again before 2010, we may see a postponement of Rahul Gandhi’s ascension to the elections after that. Advani would retire from politics and the powerful performance of the Modi faction in Gujarat, Maharashtra, HP & Karnataka could propel Narendrabhai to the driver’s seat in the BJP. Mayawati may suffer most – while she would remain a big player in any future Lok Sabha, her PM ambitions would be severely dented.

Where I could go wrong:

What to look out for: