Monday, April 27, 2009

INC's many possible PMs

Considering the likely scenario where the Congress is forced to seek the support of the Left in addition to its allies in the UPA/fourth front, it is possible that the Congress has to come up with a candidate other than Dr. Singh. Reasons:

1. The Left, especially Karat, believe that the divorce over the nuclear deal was something precipitated by Dr. Singh personally, that it was Dr. Singh's single minded obsession over sealing the deal that forced the hand of Sonia Gandhi.

2. Also, one would notice a curious trend in the Congress's behaviour towards allies. While it has refused to go ahead with 'humiliating' seat sharing arrangements in UP & Bihar with allies that have been loyal (RJD & LJP) or allies they should be indebted to (SP), they have accepted such a humiliating deal with a serially-disloyal ally (TC) in West Bengal (despite holding 6 seats from the state in the outgoing Lok Sabha, the Congress has given nearly 2/3rd the seats to TC which had just one MP). This would indicate that defeating the Left seems to be even more important that defeating BSP/BJP in Congress's scheme of things. That Sonia cleared the alliance with TC despite Pranabda's objections has been taken to mean Dr. Singh pressurizing her.

In this light, the Left may insist on a different PM if they do extend support to the UPA - something not lost on other constituents of the UPA if recent statements of Pawar, Lalu and Paswan are anything to go by.

Some idle speculation on who could be the Congress's choice if its hands are forced (and what stands for and against them):

1. Manmohan Singh: The incumbent and INC's PM candidate, Manmohan is the front-runner for the PM's post in a INC-led dispensation. His squeaky clean image and central role in the ushering in of economic reforms in 1991 means that he is held in high regards by the Indian middle class. Five years in office have taken off some sheen though - while the media may have
discovered the agressive new Manmohan Singh only recently (much to their delight) the Left saw the same last year (much to their consternation).

While the First Family's public endorsement is his trump card, extremely poor relations with the Left may upset his plans of becoming PM. His ill health is another concern for some - and may become the excuse if he needs to be eased out in someone else's favour.

2. Pranab Mukherjee: Abhishek Manu Sighvi often remarks that LK Advani is the BJP's perpetual PM-in-waiting. Well Pranabda would be the INC's answer to Advani then! He voiced his hope of becoming PM in 1984 (after Indira Gandhi's assasination). Rajiv never forgave him for that, and the way Sonia chose not to have an acting PM when Manmohan was recuperating from cardiac surgery, Sonia hasn't forgiven him either. But this head-of-more-Group-of-Ministers-than-anyone-cares-to-remember has one big trump card - acceptability to the Left. His lukewarm response to the Mahajot in WB only further endears him to the Marxists. If Marxists refuse to let Dr. Singh be PM, Sonia may finally reward him for his years of yoeman
service to the party and the country.

3. AK Anthony: Now that Shivraj Patil is out of favour and disgraced, AK Anthony is second in Sonia's list of sychophants with a Mr. Clean image. However, he is no Manmohan Singh and has few achievements (save his 'clean' image) to list in his career. Besides, he has a pre-ponderance towards resigning on the flimsiest of moral grounds - something that does not gel with INC's constant refrain of stability.

4. P Chidambaram: While a Sonia supplicant, intelligent, suave and 'Mr. Clean', his young age goes against him. Sonia would rather prefer an aging politician who would simply retire from politics when her decides to take up the mantle of PMship.

5. Sheila Dikshit: Much has been made about her bucking anti-incumbency to return to power in Delhi for a thrid consecutive time. However most of those who exult over her victory probably forget that when she had returned to power last time, Sonia Gandhi had made her run around for over a week before confirming her as the next CM - just to put her in place. There is little
evidence that Sonia trusts her more. And Sheila Dikshit as PM would be a veritable challenge to Sonia Gandhi's popularity - widowed mothers from political families that they both are. Sonia may not want to risk this.

6. Sushil Kumar Shinde: The darkhorse who could make it. In addition to being a supplicant of Sonia Gandhi, he has been Chief Minister, Union Minister, Governor and even a candidate for the office of Vice President (he lost to Shekhawat). Just like Pratibha Patil being a woman made Left drop objections to a Congressi President, his Dalit background would do the same (not to mention blunt Maya's campaign for a Dalit PM). Also he is a Maharashtrian - Pawar may have no choice but backing him.

So I think that if it is not Manmohan Singh, it would be a choice between Shinde & Antony. What do u think?

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