Predictions Galore

These are some numbers the media has been predicting. Surprisingly the numbers are more or less similar to each other giving UPA a miniscule lead over BJP. History is all set to repeat itself as we see another coalition government in the making:-

• BJP internal poll: NDA 217
• Congress internal poll: Congress 160
• Headlines Today: UPA 191, NDA 180
• Star-AC Neilsen: UPA 199, NDA 196
• India TV-C Voter: UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195
• CNN-IBN-CSDS: UPA 185-205, NDA 145-160
• The Times of India: UPA 198, NDA 183

This was Hitesh's prediction of the number game earlier on this blog. 

INC's many possible PMs

Considering the likely scenario where the Congress is forced to seek the support of the Left in addition to its allies in the UPA/fourth front, it is possible that the Congress has to come up with a candidate other than Dr. Singh. Reasons:

1. The Left, especially Karat, believe that the divorce over the nuclear deal was something precipitated by Dr. Singh personally, that it was Dr. Singh's single minded obsession over sealing the deal that forced the hand of Sonia Gandhi.

2. Also, one would notice a curious trend in the Congress's behaviour towards allies. While it has refused to go ahead with 'humiliating' seat sharing arrangements in UP & Bihar with allies that have been loyal (RJD & LJP) or allies they should be indebted to (SP), they have accepted such a humiliating deal with a serially-disloyal ally (TC) in West Bengal (despite holding 6 seats from the state in the outgoing Lok Sabha, the Congress has given nearly 2/3rd the seats to TC which had just one MP). This would indicate that defeating the Left seems to be even more important that defeating BSP/BJP in Congress's scheme of things. That Sonia cleared the alliance with TC despite Pranabda's objections has been taken to mean Dr. Singh pressurizing her.

In this light, the Left may insist on a different PM if they do extend support to the UPA - something not lost on other constituents of the UPA if recent statements of Pawar, Lalu and Paswan are anything to go by.

Some idle speculation on who could be the Congress's choice if its hands are forced (and what stands for and against them):

1. Manmohan Singh: The incumbent and INC's PM candidate, Manmohan is the front-runner for the PM's post in a INC-led dispensation. His squeaky clean image and central role in the ushering in of economic reforms in 1991 means that he is held in high regards by the Indian middle class. Five years in office have taken off some sheen though - while the media may have
discovered the agressive new Manmohan Singh only recently (much to their delight) the Left saw the same last year (much to their consternation).

While the First Family's public endorsement is his trump card, extremely poor relations with the Left may upset his plans of becoming PM. His ill health is another concern for some - and may become the excuse if he needs to be eased out in someone else's favour.

2. Pranab Mukherjee: Abhishek Manu Sighvi often remarks that LK Advani is the BJP's perpetual PM-in-waiting. Well Pranabda would be the INC's answer to Advani then! He voiced his hope of becoming PM in 1984 (after Indira Gandhi's assasination). Rajiv never forgave him for that, and the way Sonia chose not to have an acting PM when Manmohan was recuperating from cardiac surgery, Sonia hasn't forgiven him either. But this head-of-more-Group-of-Ministers-than-anyone-cares-to-remember has one big trump card - acceptability to the Left. His lukewarm response to the Mahajot in WB only further endears him to the Marxists. If Marxists refuse to let Dr. Singh be PM, Sonia may finally reward him for his years of yoeman
service to the party and the country.

3. AK Anthony: Now that Shivraj Patil is out of favour and disgraced, AK Anthony is second in Sonia's list of sychophants with a Mr. Clean image. However, he is no Manmohan Singh and has few achievements (save his 'clean' image) to list in his career. Besides, he has a pre-ponderance towards resigning on the flimsiest of moral grounds - something that does not gel with INC's constant refrain of stability.

4. P Chidambaram: While a Sonia supplicant, intelligent, suave and 'Mr. Clean', his young age goes against him. Sonia would rather prefer an aging politician who would simply retire from politics when her decides to take up the mantle of PMship.

5. Sheila Dikshit: Much has been made about her bucking anti-incumbency to return to power in Delhi for a thrid consecutive time. However most of those who exult over her victory probably forget that when she had returned to power last time, Sonia Gandhi had made her run around for over a week before confirming her as the next CM - just to put her in place. There is little
evidence that Sonia trusts her more. And Sheila Dikshit as PM would be a veritable challenge to Sonia Gandhi's popularity - widowed mothers from political families that they both are. Sonia may not want to risk this.

6. Sushil Kumar Shinde: The darkhorse who could make it. In addition to being a supplicant of Sonia Gandhi, he has been Chief Minister, Union Minister, Governor and even a candidate for the office of Vice President (he lost to Shekhawat). Just like Pratibha Patil being a woman made Left drop objections to a Congressi President, his Dalit background would do the same (not to mention blunt Maya's campaign for a Dalit PM). Also he is a Maharashtrian - Pawar may have no choice but backing him.

So I think that if it is not Manmohan Singh, it would be a choice between Shinde & Antony. What do u think?

And Then One Voted

What I had to go through to get my voter ID card will take up two and a half blog posts, but after having cast my vote now, I feel it was worth all the effort.

Here's to Indian democracy -







Wrong finger?




















Thank you very much, DNA. Huh.




















Old Airport Road, Bangalore at 6:45 am.
































The Polling Station


















List of candidates and alternate ID proofs.


















The polling booth at 7 am. There were problems with the EVM and polling began only by 7:15.

























Heartening to see the queues getting longer!







Do share your voting experiences!

Bangalore Goes To The Polls | Speculation Over Results

Honestly, one hasn't been able to spend the time following the elections at a closer level. But then, from what it looks like, one might also not have to wait for five years for the next general elections. God(and voters) forbid, hope that doesn't happen and we get a clear mandate for a government to rule us for the next five years. That's probably asking for too much.

Constituencies in Bangalore go the polls tomorrow and one is (terribly) excited to vote for the first time. One's name is included in the voters list and one sees no reason why he should not vote. One hopes that it is worth all the effort that one had to do to get the voter ID issued.

As much as one would loved to come up with an analysis and my prediction for these polls, like this excellent one by Our Psephologist In The Making (Seth, we'll make you one even if you don't want to be. Heck, you are already one), I'd like to share my sense of what is a more probable outcome at the end of the elections (One is being very careful in choosing the words).


As Dolby mentions in his comment to Seth's considered opinion, NDA will probably be able to cobble together a majority if it is able to put together the NDA that it was during Atal Behari Vajpayee's Pramod Mahajan's time. Whatever the current posturing of parties like BJD, TDP, AIADMK, BSP, even JD(S) may be, they would not, in my opinion, hestitate to be a part of a BJP-led government if they are able to enjoy power. Also, it is Advani's last shot at glory and one gets the sense that the entire party is clearly rallying around him to ensuring the PM's post for him by hook or by crook (necessary to mention this?). So there you go, one's feeling is that, *eventually*, the NDA will come to power with a thin majority.

As for the two great politicians mentioned in the above paragraphs, BJP knows how much they are missing Mr. Mahajan's networking and organization skills and only much much later, when it is too late, will our learned media realise that they have not giving Mr. Vajpayee his due. A post each on M/s Mahajan and Vajapayee and on the lack of proper political history documentation in India due for later.

As far as Karnataka is concerned, one would not be surprised if a few of the Congress bigwigs(don't think any of them wear wigs) from among M/s Dharam Singh, Mallikarjun Kharge, Veerappa Moily, S Bangarappa, Janardhan Poojary and Mrs. Margaret Alva lose in these elections. The BJP could end up winning more seats than what is being projected.

One would also be keenly following the response of the urban, educated voters who are supposedly more aware of the issues and now have been woken by these guys, drinking their tea and with our poster and reel boys and girls doing their bit of preaching. One would love to be proved wrong on this one, but one doesn't think the apathy of the urban voters towards particpation in our democratic process and public institution has gone away and it will still be rural, poor voters who will come out in large numbers and vote. One is glad that it is that way, at least those people come out and vote for some reason they believe will be to their benefit. One's worst fear is voting being turned into a cool, fashionable thing to do for our young, upwardly mobile crowd. We'll know tomorrow.

PS. One's constituency, Bangalore Central is apparently the most urban of the constituencies in Bangalore. Here's a glimpse of the BJP's campaign. No signs of other parties campaigning, at least close to where one lives and works. Urban, did someone say?








































Call me racist, but this is proof that China has the highest population in the world. They don't get to vote in China the way we get to in India, do they?

My considered opinion on the possible outcome of the Lok Sabha polls

I know it’s a risky proposition to stick one’s neck out and give numbers to each alliance’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls, but what the heck! Its not like I am looking for a career in psephology anyway! So here goes my ‘prediction’:

Margin of error: +/- 5 seats for the All India total

Yup, the BJP may emerge as the single largest party. But the difference between the Congress & the BJP numbers falls well within what I think is my margin of error. So what I can say for sure is this:

· Cong & BJP will both get between 140 & 150 seats each

· With about 200 seats, the UPA is by far the largest coalition (for the purpose of this analysis UPA includes the SP, RJD, LJP and JMM for they haven’t formally broken

off their ties with the UPA)

· The NDA, about 25 seats lesser than the UPA, is a distant second

· The much vaunted Third Front may just about manage to make the 100 mark. A weak performance from the Left is responsible for the same

· The lower side estimates for Cong and the BJP (i.e. 140) means that both put together would be above the halfway mark. Thus no true non-Cong, non-BJP govt. is

theoretically possible.

· For the UPA to form a govt., the only way would be to get the support of the Left Front, AIADMK+MDMK+PMK, TRS, JD(S), RLD, JD(U), BJD and BSP. In the process it will lose the support of Trinamool, DMK, RLD and SP. This entire process will bring an additional 71 seats to the UPA – just enough to form the government.

o That the JD(U) (whose govt. in Bihar depends on the BJP’s support), BJD (whose principle foe is the Congress) and BSP (who has had one too many run-ins with the Gandhi family) would support the UPA is for from certain

· If instead the Cong agrees to support a Third Front + rest-of-UPA govt. from outside, on may see also see the participation of TDP & AGP – maybe even the Akali Dal. With a buffer of about 20 seats above the halfway mark, such a government would be most likely to win a confidence vote.

o However the belligerence the Cong has shown with SP, RJD & LJP would suggest that the Congress wishes to avoid this possibility. Even if they do support such a government they would have enough of an influence over the govt. to ensure that potential threats like Mayawati are nowhere near PM-ship.

· Even with the support of AIADMK+PMK+MDMK, TDP+TRS and BSP, the NDA would not be able to muster the numbers needed to form a government. Advani may have lost his last chance at the top job.

· However the greatest likelihood is that no government would take shape and we would see another election by the end of this year.

o All this analysis has not factored in the potential for horse-trading. The Congress could, for example, choose to forego the chance of tying up with the BSP in favour of Amar Singh’s considerable political management skills. Upper-caste members of the BSP as well as Congress rebels in the BJP (a considerable number of these are being fielded by the BJP in Karnataka & Gujarat) could be easy targets. The political life of such a govt. is questionable and we may see early elections anyway.

What does the fact that this Lok Sabha is not destined for a full term mean for the big players? If elections are held again before 2010, we may see a postponement of Rahul Gandhi’s ascension to the elections after that. Advani would retire from politics and the powerful performance of the Modi faction in Gujarat, Maharashtra, HP & Karnataka could propel Narendrabhai to the driver’s seat in the BJP. Mayawati may suffer most – while she would remain a big player in any future Lok Sabha, her PM ambitions would be severely dented.

Where I could go wrong:

What to look out for:

An interesting view from the 'other-side'

Found an interesting read here – A transcript of Bill Clinton telling the U.S. Senate of a few things to learn from Indian Elections!

Jai Ho!

Friends of BJP Meet, April 13th, New Delhi

Having missed the last Friends of BJP meet because of prior engagements, I made it a point to attend the meet yesterday at Siri Fort Auditorium. The auditorium was full, although not overflowing like the last such meet in Delhi (probably because yesterday was Baisakhi).

Friends of BJP claims to be a 'subset of the educated civil society that is BJP-leaning, and willing to be vocal about it'. It is not officially a wing/organ of the BJP, neither does it agree with the BJP on all matter. However it is their belief that 'at this point of time the BJP is a better alternative'. The core team consists of middle & upper class professionals - lawyers, bankers, entrepreneurs and even the winner & a finalist of ToI's Lead India thingie! The Friends of BJP seeks to be all weather body which works closely with the BJP during elections as well as otherwise. More about them here.

Among those who spoke were Rajesh Jain (who sold IndiaWorld to Satyam for $115 million in 1999) from the organizers. His speech was centered around not so much the virtues of the BJP as the apathy of what he called 'Middle India' - how they refuse to vote, take little interest in matters of national interest and generally take comfort in the 'kya farak padta hai' and 'sab neta chor hai' philosophies. Consequently his main exhortation was that this class vote - to whichever party, but vote.

Arti Mehra (Mayor of Delhi) and Vijay Goel (ex-Union Minister and BJP's candidate for the New Delhi seat) also spoke. While the latter concentrated of on his work in the then Chandni Chowk constituency, the former stuck to extolling the star speaker of the evening - BJP GenSec Arun Jaitley.

Arun Jaitley's didn't dissapoint. From a tirade against 'Majboor' Dr. Singh to paens to 'Mazboot' Mr. Advani, from lambasting the UPA to dismissing the Third Front, he did it all. However what I found really heart warming was the part of his speech dedicated to us professionals. He referred to BJP's manifesto - which promises raising tax exemption to 3 lacs and reducing interest rates on housing & education loans - and pointed out that other parties haven't even bothered to promise anything concrete and have chosen to 'merely pay lip service to the power of the youth'. Jaitley pointed out, Dr. Singh outrightly dismissed the idea of a low tax, low interest-rate regime as 'wishful thinking'. Excerpts of Jaitley's speech can be found here.

My account here may be tinged by my soft corner for the BJP, but the truth is that the BJP is the only one even trying to directly engage us young professional. While the viability of the Friends of BJP's viral marketing effort (the want the 50k registered members to each talk to 25 others and so on about the need to vote and vote for the BJP) is yet to be determined, the using of new age media to achieve the same is commendable.

A visit to their website maybe interesting, if for nothing else then for their interesting write-ups on 'What you can do this Election', 'Hosting Drawing Room Conversations', 'Conducting Small Meetings', etc.